Trends and Projections of Germany’s ODA Grants for Health
The projection of trends for the years 2014 to 2016 is based on the already budgeted contributions to health-relevant multilateral organizations, the health share of total ODA disbursements provided by these organizations in 2013 and bilateral commitments for health projects and general budget support made in the form of grants in recent years. For the years after 2014 the change of the overall volume of resources planned for bilateral cooperation is also taken into account. Furthermore, the additional aid commitments and disbursements already made by Germany and the EU institutions for the response to the Ebola crisis in West Africa are accounted for assuming that the committed resources will be additional, i.e. will not be mobilized at the expense of other components of health ODA. The respective data were taken from the ONE Ebola tracker tool.
Concerning the special initiative “Health for Africa” started in 2015 the calculation is based as well on the favourable assumption that the announced annual amounts will be allocated in addition to existing health projects. Unfortunately, this perspective must be seen now as overly optimistic due the fact that the final Federal Budget submitted by the responsible committee and approved by the Parliament reduced the resources for bilateral financial and technical cooperation, whereas the previously introduced Government proposal contained a significant increase. The estimate denominated targets for 2015 shows the hypothetical result of increasing the significance of health in German development cooperation to an appropriate level within the existing boundaries of the overall aid budget. This calculation is based on the following assumptions:
- The annual direct contributions to the Global Fund and the GAVI Alliance would rise to the level demanded by civil society in Germany, i.e. 400 million euros (excl. BACKUP Initiative) and 100 million euros
- The German funding share of established budgets of health-relevant UN Organizations and other initiatives aiming to improve global health would reach levels that are commensurate with the economic capacity of Germany in relation to combined GNI of all donor countries (8.46 % taking into account that countries which joined EU after 2000 would contribute 50 % of the target established for EU-15 and valid for developed countries since 1970)
- Finally, 15 % of the remaining resources for bilateral cooperation would be allocated to health in line with the Abuja Target and the proportion between the commitment to increase total ODA to at least 0.7 % of GNI and the recommendation to contribute 0.1 % of GNI to aid in support of health
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