Germany's Financial Efforts according to Recent Budget Decisions
The assessment of the financial effort measures the before-mentioned estimates of ODA volumes against the projected Gross National Income (GNI) of the respective years. For estimating the nominal growth of GNI this updated version uses the data provided by IMF in its October 2015 Economic Outlook. Evidently, the uncertainties of the estimate of total ODA transfers in the form of grants made in 2014 must be kept in mind when examining predicted GNI ratios.
According to available data the total volume of ODA grants transferred to developing countries would reach 0.35 % of GNI, i.e. just half of the UN-agreed commitment. In recent years, the officially published figure as accepted by DAC/OECD that includes non-transfer items (administrative cost, imputed student cost, expenditure for refugees in the donor country) and net flows of ODA lending financed mainly with money from the capital market was higher by 0.08 to 0.12 percentage points than genuine aid made available on a grant basis.
The trend resulting from the above described projections of ODA grant disbursements for health would increase the respective GNI ratio to 0.035% in the coming year. If the health share estimated under these positive assumptions (11.18% of total ODA grants) will be maintained in the following years the health ODA in relation to GNI would rise to roughly 0.039% in 2018. Still, this ratio would be less than half of the average reached by comparable European DAC countries in the year 2013.
On the other side, if the resources committed to the special programme “Health for Africa” will not represent additional spending, but would just substitute or extend existing health programmes under a new label, then the tendency rather would become negative with a reduction of the GNI ratio to 0.031% in 2016, i.e. falling to the level of financial effort projected for 2014. Consequently, the trend line for the subsequent years would be lower as well.
Under the merely hypothetical supposition that the proportion of total ODA grants going to health would reach the level of the above mentioned targets scenario the GNI ratio would rise to 0.057 %, which is considerably below the average of European DAC members in 2013 including countries more severely affected by the sovereign debt crisis. The necessary conclusion is that a massive increase of total ODA towards the committed 0.7 % target is required to fulfil the recommendation to contribute 0.1 % of GNI for health promotion in developing regions.
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